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I hope that the people who believe that he has New York locked up stay home on Election Day and then people like me who do vote may actually make a difference.
I still think this election is closer than everyone is reporting.
I don't trust polls.
ex4100, I think you are right on all counts. Maybe we should open a thread on the merits of the electoral college on, say, November 5th?
Ex4100: I do appreciate the comment that I'm not a typical "liberal" Democrat ... but honestly, while polls aren't perfect, I think you have to look at them. At least 50% of Americans right now (or thereabouts) support Obama over McCain. Of that 50%+, there are far, far, far many more NORMAL people who prefer Obama to McCain who aren't like Cindy Sheehan, and who don't wear Che Gueverra tee-shirts, collect unemployment, eat aborted fetuses, etc. Trust me, in the fire service, nearly everyone is a Republican. And almost all of those guys are NORMAL PEOPLE with minor political differences that make them vote Republican. I think both sides like to point out the fringe elements to paint a bad picture of the entire other side.
As for everyone who is scared of Obama, I'll just say this. We've had Democratic Presidents before. Bill Clinton (and Hill-da-beast) had a far, far more liberal background than Obama, although Clinton ran as a Centrist. Don't worry. You might not like his policies, and if they suck, he will be voted out. I know this is a hotly contested point I'm going to make, but I don't think his being elected is going to make a terrorist attack more likely. It may or may not happen no matter who is President, but I must point out that the bipartisan 9/11 Commission recommendations were only implemented once the Dems took control in the legislature. I'm not saying that makes them better than Republicans on fighting terror, its just something I believe is objectively relevant and counterintuitive if you think they don't care about terrorism.
So it makes sense to be disappointed for a Republican if a liberal Democrat like Obama gets elected ... I just think you have to have some perspective: liberals and Democrats thought the sky was falling both times Bush was elected. They all survived! Unfortunately, Barbara Streisand and Tim Robbins didn't keep their promises.
All in all, I can tell we are all good people who care about our country, no matter who we vote for. Lets sing Koombaya!
BBC World Service (I really like to get their view), seems to suggest advantage: Obama,
time for bed, now....
i just came back from vacation in the Dominican Republic.. and i spoke to alot of people from different parts of europe, canada and south africa...everyone i spoke to it was the 1st thing they said "Obama right?"......the majority of the world likes Obama
At what ever cost, stay middle class. Because if you try to BETTER yourself, and make more than $250,000 a year. (Combined salaries count).YOU ARE ####ED!!!!!
And if you are poor, Stay poor because the rich guys will pay the freight for you!
And they wonder why this Country is going down the shitter!!!!!!!!
I wholeheartedly agree with having Hillary take a drive with Ted Kennedy.
Having Obama as President will NOT make a terrorist attack more likely but it's how he would deal with it that bothers me. Sure let's all have "diplomatic talks" with the warring nations of the world and see how far that approach goes. Then, when that fails, and we have further attacks b/c of his "do nothing" policies...
Staying home on election day may not be the answer (and I did say it tongue-in-cheek btw, b/c I do still have some rights in this country and I intend to use them all) but I seriously have to question a system where you have such fraud w/in it and it's been perpetuated/supported/funded by one of the candidates.
Anyway, I have to go get ready for work now so I can gear up to pay more taxes to ensure that the welfare socialist gov't we are moving toward gets its due and I can play my role in "spreading the wealth around."
Beyond the wide platitudes that is typical of NoBama I still don't know him any better. So this is what I will be trying to uncover the next three weeks:
1. Occidental College records -- Not released 2. Columbia College records -- Not released 3. Columbia Thesis paper -- 'not available' 4. Harvard College records -- Not released 5. Selective Service Registration -- Not released 6. Medical records -- Not released 7. Illinois State Senate schedule -- 'not available' 8. Law practice client list -- Not released 9. Certified Copy of original Birth certificate -- 'Not released' 10. Embossed, signed paper Certification of Live Birth -- Not released 11. Harvard Law Review articles published -- None 12. University of Chicago scholarly articles -- None 13. Your Record of baptism-- Not released or 'not available' 14. Your Illinois State Senate records--'not available'
i just came back from vacation in the Dominican Republic.. and i spoke to alot of people from different parts of europe, canada and south africa...everyone i spoke to it was the 1st thing they said "Obama right?"......the majority of the world likes Obama
I've had similar experience in Europe, but I think the issue is more of a passionate distaste for Bush, mostly due to the Iraq invasion, than a passion for anyone else. But, of course, the European union has no electoral votes.
Interesting, though...
(1) You should definitely still go out and vote, glad to hear it no matter who it is for (whether it was prudent or not, we have men and women dying, at least in part amongst other reasons, to spread this right to others abroad); and
(2) Once again, as Obama explained last night, ACORN has a dumb policy that awards people for the # of people they signed up to vote. While this is a dumb policy that makes the numbers of newly-registered voters look high, it is entirely IRRELEVANT for the purposes of getting votes for Obama or McCain on election day. The dead people, fake names and Dallas Cowboys registered to vote will not be voting on election day! It was a dumb policy by ACORN, and ACORN and those who donated to ACORN are paying the price -- literally -- for this imprudent decision. That doesn't mean ACORN is an evil organization or that it hasn't done great things for some communities ... it just means it had a very, very bad idea for the way its "employees" get paid.
*Once again, Obama does not run ACORN. But my point isn't about his involvement with ACORN, just that "voter registration fraud" has nothing to do with the results on election day!
I hope that the people who believe that he has New York locked up stay home on Election Day and then people like me who do vote may actually make a difference.
I still think this election is closer than everyone is reporting.
I don't trust polls.
Something to ponder.
1. I respectfully disagree with you in NY. Our vote will mean nothing. NY hasnt voted for a Republican President since Reagan.
2. Every Democratic Candidate for President since 1980 had a double digit lead in every major poll going into the election.
How has that worked out for them??
This election will be won in Flyover Country where people cling to their Guns & Bibles. The noise about Polls indcating a landslide NoBama victory is an attempt to get Repulicans to stay home.
ADZE that what I meant. I am a realist about NY. I do not believe the national polls as I feel many have a decidely Democratic sampling.
I am a believer that you don't always believe what you see in the papers and what you hear on the radio and on TV. I also believe that polling is such an inexact "science" that the politicians should stop pandering to them and stick with what they really believe is best for the country.
Finally, I think that Joe "the plumber" said more things that MOST Americans can relate to than ANY of the candidates that have(had) a dog in this hunt for the White House.
ADZE that what I meant. I am a realist about NY. I do not believe the national polls as I feel many have a decidely Democratic sampling.
I am a believer that you don't always believe what you see in the papers and what you hear on the radio and on TV. I also believe that polling is such an inexact "science" that the politicians should stop pandering to them and stick with what they really believe is best for the country.
Finally, I think that Joe "the plumber" said more things that MOST Americans can relate to than ANY of the candidates that have(had) a dog in this hunt for the White House.
ADZE that what I meant. I am a realist about NY. I do not believe the national polls as I feel many have a decidely Democratic sampling.
I am a believer that you don't always believe what you see in the papers and what you hear on the radio and on TV. I also believe that polling is such an inexact "science" that the politicians should stop pandering to them and stick with what they really believe is best for the country.
Finally, I think that Joe "the plumber" said more things that MOST Americans can relate to than ANY of the candidates that have(had) a dog in this hunt for the White House.
Man oh man when you listen to the Liberal "Intelligencia" here in NYC they are appalled by "The Plummer". They look at him like the "Geico" Caveman.
There is no connection to the plummer in NYC and places like Hollywood.
He does connect to those in the midwest who cling to there guns & Bibles. That is where thise election will be won.
I agree about the shakiness of polling data and that it can't be "relied on"; but it also has some value, despite past failures to accurately predict elections (Bush over Kerry despite contrary exit polling, for example).
I agree about the shakiness of polling data and that it can't be "relied on"; but it also has some value, despite past failures to accurately predict elections (Bush over Kerry despite contrary exit polling, for example).
Brother ~ Every Democratic Candidate for President since 1980 had a double digit lead in every major poll going into the election.
Polls are for conversation and Partisan gibberish. ;-)
I agree about the shakiness of polling data and that it can't be "relied on"; but it also has some value, despite past failures to accurately predict elections (Bush over Kerry despite contrary exit polling, for example).
The most famous failure in the polls was probably 1936 predictions that Alf Landon would beat the incumbent Democrat - FDR. I remember this from my college statistics class: polling was flawed because they used the telephone extensively, and only the wealthy had phones in those days. The wealthy weren't too thrilled with the new deal. The method skewed the results.
Today's polling is much more sophisticated, but there are still risks. Two of the biggest I see are:
1) All polls say they are reporting on "likely" voters. But they use algorithms to decide from their sample who is a likely voter. If you are 50 and have voted since 18, you are a likely voter. But what if you are 18 and never voted? or 25? So the polls are weighted, and if they are weighted wrong, they could be understating McCain's strength, since Obama's support is strongest among the young.
2) Like 1936, polls are relying on the telephone. But they utilize land lines, not cell phones. Many of the younger voters don't have land lines. So if that effect is not properly weighted, Obama's support in understated.
So, by all means, ignore the polls and vote for whomever you think will be best for the job.
Re: 3rd Presidential Debate
