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We're discussing Tropical Activity possible headed this way
Re: Tropical Activity possible headed this wayGo to Top
Now theres two low pressure systems in question that could potentially have an impact on our area in the next week or so. One is off of Hispaniola and the other one is down in the carolinas. The one in the carolinas is moving towards our area in the next couple of days. This is the system that will bring the rain, moderate winds, higher tides and localized flooding predicted for the area from thurs to saturday. This system is starting to become more tropical in nature and more organized.
The second low pressure system by hispaniola in the carribbean if anything will not impact our area until at least the begining of next week. This system is losing strength and organization.
The system we need to watch out for is the one in the carolinas which has a high probability for tropical storm formation.
Re: Tropical Activity possible headed this wayGo to Top
Details on the two storms from Weatherchannel.com (looks like one storm Thurs night/Friday and the second on Saturday):
Watching Two Potential East Coast Systems
Wayne Verno, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
6:01 a.m. ET 9/25/2008
Low pressure continues to become better organized east of the Carolina Coast as of early this morning, and it remains possible that this could develop into a subtropical or tropical storm today. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate this system this morning.
Regardless of the designation of the system, the impacts will be the same on the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast coasts. In additional to the high surf and gusty winds, rain will begin to increase today as the storm system nears the coast.
Through today, waves could reach up to 20 feet along the Outer Banks of North Carolina and the southern Virginia coast. The highest surf will shift north on Friday, with waves reaching 15 to 18 feet (locally higher) on the New Jersey coastline. High surf will also impact Florida's east coast with waves in the 8 to 12 foot range through Friday.
A storm surge from the gradient between this low pressure and a strong high pressure to the north will continue to bring a strong onshore flow onto the mid-Atlantic Coast. Coastal flooding will remain possible along the North Carolina Coast today, spreading north to the New Jersey coast into Friday.
Significant to severe beach erosion will be possible from the North Carolina Coast to the New Jersey Coast.
In addition to the waves, strong winds of 25 to 40 mph, with gusts over 40 mph will spread from North Carolina, to the New Jersey Coast. Gale and storm force winds will be possible along the costal areas, especially along the North Carolina Outer banks where gusts could go over 60 mph.
Heavy rain will increase from eastern North Carolina, through eastern Virginia, spreading north to the New York City area by tonight. Rainfall of 1-3 inches will be common, with isolated amounts over 6 inches possible.
Isolated tornadoes are also possible over extreme northeast North Carolina and extreme eastern Virginia later today and tonight.
Meanwhile, low pressure continues to move north, away from the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico, and should begin to accelerate northward through Friday.
This low pressure has become better organized and it could become a tropical depression today or tomorrow. NOAA Aircraft is in this area early this morning, and Air force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate this area later this afternoon.
It is possible there could be some impact on Bermuda with windy conditions on Friday and surf increasing to 12 to 18 feet. At this point it appears this system will have its closest approach to the northern New England states (especially Cape Cod) on Saturday.
Re: Tropical Activity possible headed this wayGo to Top
what if the system near Hispanola can draft the system off the Carolinas, and pull off a slingshot pass on the straightaway...will that get it here first then? Also how long til the first pro decides surfs up and gets himself destroyed along the south shore?
Re: Tropical Activity possible headed this wayGo to Top
The storm near Bermuda was upgraded to TS Kyle
...Low pressure area finally develops into a tropical cyclone...
Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Kyle.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft and
satellite images indicate that the low pressure area that moved
northward from Hispaniola has developed into a tropical storm.
At 500 PM AST...2100z...the center of Tropical Storm Kyle was
located near latitude 23.5 north...longitude 68.3 west or about 645
miles...1035 km...south-southwest of Bermuda.
Kyle is moving toward the north near 8 mph...13 km/hr...and this
general motion is expected to continue during the next 48 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph...75 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of
days.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles...165 km
from the center.
The hurricane hunters reported a minimum central pressure of 1001
mb...29.56 inches.
Repeating the 500 PM AST position...23.5 N...68.3 W. Movement
toward...north near 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds...45
mph. Minimum central pressure...1001 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
1100 PM AST.
Re: Tropical Activity possible headed this wayGo to Top
TS Kyle is forcasted to strenghten to a Cat 1 hurricane by sat. The storm itself is going to miss us by a long shot however the clouds and tropical moisture from Kyle is expected to mix with the bands of rain/wind/thunder from the carolina system coming up the coast to produce heavier downpours, wind and flooding in our area sat through sat night.