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Thu Sep 04 13:35:20 2008
STATUS: Open - Active
PROGNOSIS: Monitoring
Weather-Tropical Storm
Citywide - Tropical Storm Hanna
(Based on an NWS Consult at 1130 Hours)
Overview -
Tropical Storm Hanna has the potential to bring heavy rain and tropical storm force winds to the local area from Friday night into Saturday night. Uncertainty remains with timing and track but chances are increasing that Hanna will have an impact on the local New York City area.
The remainder of the forecast is dependant on the strength and track of Hanna. At this time, the official forecast has Hanna making landfall early Saturday as a Category 1 hurricane along the Southeast coast (Carolinas) and then curving and racing to the North-Northeast as a tropical storm. The center of Hanna is forecasted to be near the Southern New Jersey coast by Saturday evening and then into Coastal New England on Sunday morning. Hanna is expected to remain offshore as she passes the region.
Precipitation -
Heavy tropical rainfall is expected throughout the area in association with this event. Light rainfall starts in NYC late Friday night, with a steadier rainfall continuing from 0200 hours on Saturday through 0200 hours on Sunday. The period of heaviest rainfall will occur during the morning, afternoon and early evening hours on Saturday.
Area rainfall totals of 3 to 4 inches are forecasted. Hourly rainfall rates between ¾ of an inch to 1-1/2 inches are possible during the passage of stronger bands of heavy rainfall. Dangerous flash flooding in addition to flooding of poor drainage and low-lying areas is expected.
Winds -
Winds will increase in intensity after Midnight on Saturday continuing g through the nighttime hours on Sunday. Sustained winds of 30 to 40 MPH with some higher gusts near 45 MPH are expected. Winds will be the strongest for communities along south-facing Atlantic Ocean shores.
Severe Weather -
Severe thunderstorms and even tornadoes are possible with landfalling tropical systems. The greatest threat for this activity will be to the east of the City based on Hanna's current forecast track, however, should the track of Hanna move to the west of the City, the chance of severe weather will increase.
Fortunately for New York City, we are currently in between astronomical high tide cycles. As such, coastal flooding impacts should be less severe. Tidal departures of 2 to 2-1/2 feet above normal are expected on Saturday with the storm surge produced by Tropical Storm Hanna. The strong onshore winds will result in some minor beach and coastal erosion. A moderate risk of rip currents exists today for the Atlantic Ocean beaches. This risk will increase to high as Hanna approaches the area on Friday and Saturday.
NWS Issued Products -
It is expected that the National Hurricane Center may will Tropical Storm Watches for the New York City area. These watches will most probably be issued with either the 0500 hours or 1100 hours forecast updates on Friday morning. These Tropical Storm Watches could be upgraded to Tropical Storm Warnings as Hanna approaches the area. Flooding related products may be issued as needed by the NWS.
Fri Sep 05 05:32:22 2008
STATUS: Open - Active
PROGNOSIS: Monitoring
Weather-Tropical Storm
Manhattan
Flood Watch in effect from Saturday afternoon through late
Saturday night.
The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a Flood Watch
From Saturday afternoon through late Saturday night for the NYC area.
Tropical storm Hanna is located north of the Bahama Islands
early this morning and is expected to continue to move northwest
today.
Heavy rain associated with this tropical storm will spread well
ahead of the main low late tonight into Saturday night with
the heaviest rain expected Saturday afternoon into Saturday
night. Tropical storm Hanna is expected to produce anywhere
between 3 to 6 inches of rain with some possible higher amounts
across the watch area. These rainfall totals have the potential
to produce flooding across highly urbanized and poor drainage
areas and cause small streams and creeks to flow out of their
banks.
A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.
Flash flooding often leads to impassable roadways. Motorists that
attempt to cross flooded roadways put their lives in danger and
can cause thousands of dollars of damage to their vehicles due to
water entering the engine and vehicle.
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action.
Fri Sep 05 12:48:27 2008
STATUS: Open - Active
PROGNOSIS: Monitoring
Weather-Tropical Storm
Citywide
TROPICAL STORM HANNA LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
1217 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2008
AT 11 AM EDT A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND INCLUDING LONG ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA GENERALLY WITHIN
36 HOURS. THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW JERSEY, SOUTHEAST NEW YORK INCLUDING ALL OF NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.
AT 1100 AM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH LONGITUDE 7 SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA.
HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HANNA WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST PRIOR TO LANDFALL, ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR HANNA TO BECOME A HURRICANE. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB 28.94 INCHES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED AS HANNA PASSES JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. WE CURRENTLY ARE IN A PERIOD OF NEAP TIDES, WHICH RESULTS IN LOW ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. AS A RESULT SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER HIGH SEAS AND ROUGH SURF COULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER WATER LEVELS, AND SOME SPLASH OVER ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE.
THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ARE AS FOLLOWS...
AT SANDY HOOK...
HIGH TIDE IS AT 1249 AM AND 115 PM SATURDAY...AND AT 139 AM SUNDAY.
AT THE BATTERY...
HIGH TIDE IS AT 1235 AM AND 101 PM SATURDAY...AND AT 125 AM SUNDAY.
AT EAST ROCKAWAY INLET...
HIGH TIDE IS AT 1242 AM AND 108 PM SATURDAY...AND AT 132 AM SUNDAY.
AT JONES INLET...
HIGH TIDE IS AT 1229 AM AND 1255 PM SATURDAY...AND AT 119 AM SUNDAY.
I think this Hanna Montana is not going to be so bad. The East End will get the most of it while we get some down pours..Big deal.. Bring it on HANNA !!!
From the National Hurricane Center last updated at 5:30 PM....
Saturday Night: Periods of rain and possibly a thunderstorm before 2am, then a chance of rain. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Areas of fog. Low around 68. Very windy, with a north wind 40 to 43 mph decreasing to between 14 and 17 mph. Winds could gust as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between two and three inches possible.
TS Hanna
